1. Lion’s Roar
J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) 8 8 0 8.4 8 8 0 8 8 0 7.2 8 8 8 8
2. Lunar Fox
J: Noel Callow (56.5kg) 17 17 0 19 19 19 0 18 17 0 19.2 19 18 18 19
3. Mo’unga
J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) 2.9 2.9 0 2.98 2.9 2.7 0 2.8 2.6 0 2.65 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6
4. Milford
J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) 16 16 0 17 17 16 0 17 16 0 19 19 15 15 17
5. Grandslam
J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg) 8 8 0 8.2 7 8 0 8 7.5 0 7.8 7.5 8 8 7.5
6. Wheelhouse
J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) 13 13 0 14 14 13 0 13 13 0 13 13 13 13 13
7. The Elanora
J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg) 34 34 0 38 34 34 0 34 34 0 27.5 35 34 34 34
8. Khoekhoe
J: Kerrin McEvoy (56.5kg) 16 16 0 18 16 16 0 17 17 0 17.2 17 17 17 17
9. Bucharest
J: Craig Williams (56.5kg) 101 26 0 130 126 101 0 126 101 0 79 126 126 126 126
10. Explosive Jack
J: John Allen (56.5kg) 71 71 0 85 81 71 0 71 71 0 71 71 71 71 71
11. Sky Lab
J: James McDonald (56.5kg) 9.5 9.5 0 12 11 9.5 0 11 9.5 0 11.2 9.5 11 11 11
12. Here To Shock
J: Tom Marquand (56.5kg) 34 34 0 32 26 34 0 34 34 0 41 41 34 34 34
13. The Cullinan
J: Robbie Dolan (56.5kg) 201 201 0 160 301 301 0 201 201 0 321 301 201 201 301
14. Kobestar
J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) 151 151 0 200 301 151 0 251 151 0 281 301 251 201 301
15. Montefilia
J: Jason Collett (54.5kg) 6 6 0 8.4 7 6 0 7 6 0 6.9 7 7 7 7
Market Percentage % 122% 122% 0 122% 111% 121% 0 125% 120% 0 122% 120% 120% 122% 118%
As you can see crazy Market % these below are the columns above just highlighting How Bad betting into the Market now is!
122%
122%
0
122%
111%
121%
0
125%
120
0
122%
120%
120%
122%
118%
2020 Sky Racing Group 1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m- Start Time @ 2:10pm.
1-Lions Roar- was very Impressive Last start Winning the lead up to this in the Randwick Guineas in which when drawing 10 he went back and settled in 12th and was still there @ 800m before jumping on backs of horses such as Wheelhouse who was wide for most the trip. Last prep in the Champion Stakes over 2000 he did race more positive in 4th & 5th when beaten only 0.40 length to race favourite-Montefilia. Unfortunately drawing barrier 12 here Brenton Advulla will be forced to go back.
2-Lunar Fox- caught many of guard when Winning the Australian Guineas at Flemington 2 ago and even though he sits @ $16 he has only failed in his run over 2000 and has not been proven in Heavy- Will like sit midfield but this will not be a fairy tale here and happy to ignore.
3-Mo-Unga- Many would consider this Colt the unlucky horse coming out of the Randwick Guineas as he did come from 8th @ 800 but was held up for the best part of the straight and when finally out he stormed home spotting them 6 lengths to be beaten only 1.3 lengths. He has a Heavy Win to his Credit and he is Bred to stay being by Savabeel x Chandelier with the Dam being by Staying Star-O’Reilly and going through the Dams side its all Centaine which love it Wet even with that said and this Colt will sit more handy around Midfield he will fight the finish out but he is not the one for mine.
4-Milford- This NZ Colt has raced through some Listed and Group races over there and although it was a good run last start in the NZ Derby over 2400 I still do not think he has the class to Win this and at $16 is under the odds should be more like $25 and may finish Top 8 as he draws very well and does have the Polish put on by Stephen Marsh.
5-Grandslam– It is more likely he will be up vying for the leaders role as when drawing well he goes forward it was only in the C.S Hayes & The Australian Guineas who drew very wide and went back but all indicators he will be on speed here and he did beat Young Werther in the Alistair at Moonee Valley by more than 6 lengths he has no exposed Wet form and at early prices $7 he is too short as prefer proven in the Heavy- prepared to risk.
6- Wheelhouse- This is the horse I put on Twitter as the run out of the Randwick Guineas as he was forced to race 3-4 Wide from the 1400 and rounding the turn was 7- 8 wide and he actually hit the lead at the 200 before the run told and he was only beaten 1.80 lengths @ $51 he ran 4th then and the extra week would have helped him get over that tough run as they are still only 3 yr olds. A nice big loping type by Pierro who has run well on Heavy (2-0-2-0) and his 2nd in the Fernill Listed last prep over 1600 was excellent for this when he sat much handier in 4th on settling and the margin was only 0.10 a bob of the heads. He is the Best Each Way at $12/$3.80.
7-The Eleanora- With a better draw than in the Randwick Guineas he will race just off pace/speed and he Won well last prep in Brisbane in a Group 3 over 2200 The Grand Prix he won well and time was good overall he does handle the Heavy but we will miss him here as others better credentialed. Another with the right run who can finish in the first half of the field.
8- Khoekhoe- Can take Improvement from his 1st up run over 1800m but he was beaten by an in form horse and another in Butter Chicken who is promising but not long left maiden ranks but again the latter has ability. He is a nice horse and will earn good prizemoney for owners and will be racing in the first 5-6 here but perhaps this is a bit rich with 4-5 other that I have infront. Has better form 3rd up where it is unbeaten (2-2-0-0) it has however Won once 2nd up over a small sample of 2 starts. A top 4 would not totally shock but another that can finish in the first half of the field.
9- Bucharest- His run may have gone un noticed in the Randwick Guineas but he came from 13th @ 400 to be beaten only 5.60 lengths and although he is not on my radar due to the odd prep Chris Waller has given him. He is an on speed/pace runner usually but from 9 which is an awkward draw it will take all of Craig Williams magic to get him in with cover. Maybe they should have aimed him at the staying races in QLD. He is $151 and rightly so as he ran 3rd in the Champion Stakes to the Favs here but where he was in the run that highly was advantageous and I doubt that will be the case here.
10- Explosive Jack- Another one aiming too high and Yes his Win was good in the Tasmanian Derby but hat is many lengths on average below this grade and quality- we must compare Apples with Apples so to Speak. He is by Jakkalberry as we all can remember. So one would guess his progeny will stay but I think S.A Listed races is more his cup of Tea. Happy to rule out.
11- Sky Lab- I am quite surprised he has opened up so short in the betting as I have him around the $18-$20 range as yes he has upside but he would have to enjoy a very dream run here to finish 3rd or 4th at very Best in my Opinion and of course always happy to be proven wrong but I think the $10-$11 is on ability and I would understand had he Beat a few of the Better homes previously. He has a terrible gate so what does JMAC do? The only Stat I like is he has Won on Heavy (1-1-0-0) but there are too many Factors against him. I do like his Stallion, Real Impact but I have him at best finishing Midfield.
12- Here to Shock- If he wins he is aptly named and I expect him to finish the other side of Midfield and do not rate him at all Even though his runs last start in the Randwick Guineas was better them half the field here as he had little luck and I look at the Australian Guineas Run at Flemington which I have watched no less than 25 times and he should have finished closer with the run he had. Not here even as an Upset and should be $40-$50 not $26. Aiming too high.
13- The Cullinan- The rank outsider of the field and rightly so. Strange things happen but if he can collect prizemoney that will be good enough for connections- Not here regardless of the draw.
14- Kobestar- As above should be running around Provincials and Country races.
15- Montefilia- The Only Filly taking the boys on and as such she will get a 2kg weight relief which at the end of the day still 2kgs.The knock for me is the Jockey he just makes more bad choices than the other Top 10 or so in Sydney and he has ridden the filly once for a Win last prep in the Champion Stakes but honestly I could have steered her home in that even at 65kg’s. Yes he will probably ride the Winner now but she of course has all the right boxes ticked- peaking now as her run has been timed, the draw is a touch tricky as he will want her travelling close enough just off pace but not as far back as Midfield so hoping for a 5th-7th in the running line- I still think if gets to a slog fest final 200 she maybe left exposed and her quality will take her a long way but I have a few ahead of her such as Lions Roar, Mo Unga and Wheelhouse.
**Recommended Bet- Wheelhouse @ $12/$3.80 Each Way. (stake $100 each way & or your normal betting Stake)
*Exotics- Quinella- 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 15 cost $15- Recommended Bet x 5 cost = $75
*Exotics Trifecta- 6/ 1, 3, 7, 8, 15- Standout Trifecta cost = $20 for$1 Unit (One horse to Win with same 5 to run 2nd & 3rd)
Exotics Trifecta- 3/ 1, 6, 7, 8, 15- Standout Trifecta as above- Cost = $20 for $1 Unit.
Outlay on race $315-
Return on race $
Above are only recommendations Please Bet within your own Gambling comfort and use your Normal Betting stake as we recommend to members of Tipm8.com.