Group 1 Golden Slipper over 1200m
1- Shaquero @ $27/$7.50- He actually showed a determination in him which I did not know he had despite his good record over all when he fought back strongly to win a usually good lead up race into the Slipper in the Pago Pago. He will do a bit of work coming over from 15 which may be the difference in him finishing the race off and as he is untried on Heavy I am prepared to risk despite his credentials to date- if he works he may finish worse than midfield here. Important to note he features in several Stewards reports advising the horse does not like the softening track conditions when in his Brisbane & Sydney starts.
2- Profiteer @ $3.50/$1.60- It looks on paper to be an easy leaders role for Hugh Bowman with perhaps Glistening and Shaquero coming from wide gates to park up to his outer but it is a Golden Slipper and surely it does not go to script that easy with Home Affairs also showing pace previously along with Rocket Tiger and Four Moves Ahead and I hope they do run early which means it is a genuine run race. The price of $3.50 has me concerned as even though he Won the Millenium on soft that is not the Heavy they will get here and it will be Bog Heavy so even if you twisted my arm I just could not take the short odds- I would be foolish to suggest he cannot run a race but top 6 for mine.
3-Artorius @ $9.50/$3.10- Very Impressive winning the Group 1 Blue Diamond and still kicking myself as he Impressed me all along and even I fell into the trap of backing the fill Arcaded after drawing 1. Simply Put he has gears only the good ones do and many have said he was favoured with the strong pace up front yet his final 600 was only in 35.28 by all means not a quick final sectional yet his run prior was more like it at Sandown running his final 600 in 34.71 over 1300 and Winning by 4.5 lengths so he could have been lower 34’s one would think either way he shows tremendous acceleration for a 2yr Old and he will only getter Better. Untried in Heavy going but his Dam-Gracie Lass was Bred to handle the Heavy and looking up the sales details he was purchased for $120k at The Magic Millions Yearling Sale 2020 and previously Troy O’Neile purchased in 2018 a Half Brother by Onemorenomore (Race name-Onemorechoice) he has had 19 starts for 3 Wins unfortunately not as good as his Half Brother there was a filly sold in between by IM INVINCIBLE even unraced she is worth some coin and Vinery kept her- thy would be glad they did now as he is a Huge chance in this even from the draw and he proved the Sydney way of going no issues with a good trial effort recently.
4- Ingratiating @ $13/$4- All 4 runs this prep have been Excellent and at $14/$3.90 he could well be a knockout chance and beaten 1st up behind a smart one in the Chairman’s Stake took the improvement into the Talindert 2nd up when strolling down the 1100m at Flemington coming from 9th @ 800 very impressive and nearly got away with the Blue Diamond but was eaten by the above horse and I think these 2 are right in this and then came to Sydney and just got too far back when flying home from 11th @ 800 and still 10th @ 400 amazing run considering which would have this Colt primed with Damien Oliver taking over and I must say is riding well once again. Stable have put the Blinkers back on for Grand Final Day. He will be worse than midfield due to the draw but the final 200 he will be steaming home. The only question is Heavy?
5- Anamoe @ $16/$4.60- Another one from the Powerful Godolphin Blue and like its Stablemate above brings very similar form lines into this yet he too is unproven in the Heavy I think the gate means he will at some point be giving them a too big of a start and would have to be Bernborough to Win and run the time required so he is good enough but too many factors against here.
6- Home Affairs @ $16/$4.40- The Powerhouse of Coolmore and the may other notable Owners would dearly love to Win this With a Colt by Super Sire IAM INVINCIBLE but is He really Good enough? I think even with his consistent form of late he has always given me the Impression his 3yr old days would be better and he still does a few things wrong in running. He will enjoy a very nice run in transit and he should get a soft run in the Top 3-5 but when they hit the 250 and the acid test is applied will he have an extra length in Him? I think he may weaken due to the pressure of this race and the $16 on offer is fair for his chances not one I could back.
7- Kalashnikov @ $41/$10- It was a good Win in the Black Opal and he will no doubt make a good Bread and Butter horse down the track but when he meets the better ones he finishes 5 lengths astern from them so if they finish in the first Half with him they should be thankful and barrier 1 may well be a curse in this and the Heavy going- He should finish near the backend.
8- Stay Inside @ $4.60/$1.90- It is an interesting stat that the last 13 Winners of the Slipper have finished in 1st or 2nd at their last start which is a pretty important Stat to factor in and same with the Melbourne Cup with I think 7-8 of the last 10 Winners are Entires/Stallions which if you delete all the others it usually only leaves you with 25% of the field to find a Winner. There is many that would argue he should be unbeaten as he cold have Won the Todman with a touch of better luck. I do not think he can Win even @ $4.80 but he will loom dangerously at the 150 and he gets an inform jockey surging at he Premiership in Sydney and the gun draw to make a difference but the fact that JMAC has sided with Home Affairs worries me a bit. The slice of his Winning percentage is good so why swap? A place show.
9- Rocket Tiger @ $41/$10- The connections would have to be thankful as this trademan like Colt is an earner but I thought a shade disappointing in the Black Opal but he does not know how to run a bad race and he did scare Home Affairs in the Silver Slipper but the barrier may have sorted him out as he no doubt goes forward but may have that edge taken out of him by the early work- Looking forward to see where they go in 12 months with him and $50 is right.
11- Captivant @ $31/$8.50- Has come through an easier path to get into the Slipper and after Winning the Victory Vein there was talk of him being a live Slipper hope but of course that was early days and I doubt he can run the times to steal the Slipper anyway. Stable have kept him fresh into this and I honestly thought his trial with Artorius in it was better than Okay and stable have tinkered with his gear but one that should finish in Top 10.
12-Glistening @ $67/$19- Well wouldn’t this be a comeback story for jockey JVO who with his injuries was side lined for quite a while and he has always show talent for most of the time but this is one of the more lightly raced fillies going into this she will get a decent run in transit as she will come across with natural pace and should sit in the Top 4 is she good enough? Confident in saying No but her dam Beethog was a listed mare and she did Win the Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas and she could handle Wet tracks mainly soft 6-7 and when racing on Heavy I do not think it was the track that beat her more the opposition. She was never far off them and this filly seems to have inherited Mums characteristics. This Filly did Win the Reisling which has always been a good lead into the Slipper and the 1200 time of 1:09.27 was quicker than that of Artorius winning the Blue Diamond but slower than Anamoe Winning but to take into context she did all the work leading and did still slip home her final 600 in 33.68- By no means she is not a $61/$19 hope she may run a place if they slacken up front. Either way I will follow her as I think she may develop in time.
13- Four Moves Ahead @ $5.50/$2.20- Another filly who is lightly raced but she is unbeaten (2-2-0-0) and clearly excels on Wet tracks she too like above has good early speed and will come over to try and negate barrier 10 so she should be in that first 4 or 5 when they settle after the first 500 and although she has not been the same quality such as the likes of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 she is on the rise and she will be up close when they get down to the business end. Jockey Nash Rawiller was on her in the Sweet Embrace and even though she is @ $5.50 I think she is unders and have her around the $9 mark as the better chances will give her a start and we will not know till raceday if the advantage is on speed or it is playing fair but I think her price is on ability rather than on who she has beaten. At some pint no doubt she will look the Winner but I think the big guns will blaze late.
14- Swift Witness @ $27/$7- Her run last start in the Reisling was very good but Glistening had to do it all the way and was softened up in front as where this filly ran on strongly from 9th on turn to just miss and I do not think coming from barrier 12 and going back to near last will do her any favours. Tim Clark will look for short cuts on the way home and she looks to lack the class even though I think listening may sneak a place with the right run they pattern totally opposite and just not sure if the 4-5 going forward will warrant a hectic first few furlongs because if they back off a few will need to get going early than they would have liked. Not in this and oddly enough they have her at $31 half the price of Glistening but would much prefer having my last $20 on Glistening each way as do not see value at all at the current price in other words could not entertain even for a place.
15- Mallory @ $31/$7.50- Even though this filly is taking on the big guns it was hard to ignore her run in the Sweet Embrace behind Four Moves Ahead and if you are entertaining the latter then this filly ran faster closing sectionals as she came from 10th on turn and was still 10th @ 400 and was clearly finishing better than anything else when only 2.3 behind Four Moves Ahead. She could well be a roughie as she will settle far better from the good gate and could be 6th or 7th and again will the inside be of any help or will horses be shifting away? We will know by race 7 of course so everyone adjust accordingly but I would throw her in a very sneaky place chance as although not racing against the Boys she has held her own against the female division more or less.
16- Queen of Wizardry @ $101/$21- Coming from one of the better S/R in the training ranks of Annabel Neasham this filly has Won $476k only due to running 4th in the MM on the Gold Coast where she pocketed $415k so even though drawn well and honestly the run had merit at the Gold Coast as she drifted back from barrier 12 and came from 10th @ 800 but many made ground in that race too behind Shaquero and I think stable would be wrapped if she finished in the fist half of the field. It is the Golden Slipper and there have been some strange results over the years but wary of those that are not proven on Heavy then even then they put in poor performances. Many Punters do not even bet on Heavy- this filly may be aimed at weaker in QLD or S.A Classics.
Recommended Bet- $100 to follow Each Way (outlay of $200) with the improving Track is ARTORIUS @ $9.50 to $10/$3 shop around as big totes and odds will drift and move in this Big race with a saver on INGRATIATING @ $13/4 @ 50% of your normal same Bet staking so in the case $50 each way (total outlay $100)
For exotics a Quinella with 6 boxed x costing $15 for $1 unit x 10 = $150 (2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12) boxed.
Total Outlay is $450-
Return is ?